The Oct. 14 federal election may very well change nothing.
Or it could change everything. There is a lot more at stake than meets the eye.
Those who have sifted through the early poll numbers have concluded that -- if everyone runs a standard campaign -- Harper will be asked to form another minority government.
Under this scenario, Canadians don't get much for the $400 million this campaign is expected to cost. On the plus side, this outcome would make it marginally easier for the government of the day to implement its agenda. We are now into the third federal election in four years. Woe unto the party that brings down the government and takes Canadians into a fourth election in five years.
It is also wrong to trivialize this election because the federal Liberals are road testing a platform that would fundamentally alter our affairs.
Leader Stephane Dion wants to shift taxes away from income onto polluting behaviour. This is leading-edge stuff. Liberals maintain it is the surest way to a green economy and that it will be "revenue neutral."
Canada's "natural governing party" is asking voters to take a huge leap of faith. If it works for them, basic changes will be made to the economy not seen anywhere in the industrialized world. If voters are skeptical and it backfires, Conservatives could ride the backlash to a majority. If that happens, it is just as well for the Liberals. They would need at least four quiet years to rebuild their bank account, re-think their policies and select a new leader.
The stakes are high at the national level. But they are also high locally. Local MP Diane Finley, minister of immigration and citizenship in the Harper candidate, would be a trophy for any opposition candidate. Her defeat would reverberate in Ottawa because she is the wife of Doug Finley, Stephen Harper's most trusted adviser and the brains behind the Conservatives' campaign.
The Liberals have fielded an able challenger in the person of Dr. Eric Hoskins, a member of the Order of Canada and a leader in international relief efforts through his participation in War Child Canada and Doctors Without Borders. Dr. Hoskins is hip, articulate and engaged with issues that appeal to young people and progressives. He is comfortable with Dion's Green Shift and is able to explain it in layman's terms.
Two things have happened in recent days to boost Hoskins' chances. The Green Party confirmed yesterday that Frank Nightingale of Waterford, former president of the Norfolk Federation of Agriculture, has rescinded his candidacy. A lot of farmers will have to find somewhere else to park their votes. And Caledonia activist Gary McHale confirmed yesterday that he will file his nomination papers as an independent this week. Residents of Haldimand -- a bastion of conservatism -- who are angry about ongoing native land claims in that county will have a place on the ballot where they can register their displeasure. McHale will siphon votes from all candidates, but Finley in particular. Our cabinet minister is in for a rude surprise if she tries taking Haldimand-Norfolk for granted.