Could our province, the largest and arguably the richest in Confederation, be in trouble?
More warning signs appeared this week that things aren't quite right.
First is the admission from Ontario Provincial Police Commissioner Julian Fantino that his force is understaffed. He was responding to a plea to Premier Dalton McGuinty from the Ontario Provincial Police Association, claiming the force is critically short of officers. The OPPA, which represents officers, says cops are forced to work alone in some remote areas, while the busy Wasaga Beach detachment will have 18 fewer officers this summer. They say it's a recipe for disaster. The OPPA is demanding 500 more cops immediately.
The province says it's waiting for federal dollars.
Second is the alert issued by the head of the London Health Sciences Centre - which operates three of London's four hospitals. Patients are being warned that they may experience delays in the ER, surgical cancellations and being treated in unconventional locations, such as hospital hallways.
The cause: a lack of beds in long-term care facilities and a shortage of home care means some patients who should be discharged remain in hospital.
Those reports follow warnings that Ontario may soon be branded as a have-not province and could qualify for equalization payments from the federal government. Falling to have-not status would mean crossing a critical psychological barrier, especially when such traditional poor provinces such as Newfoundland and Labrador recently forecast a $544-million surplus on the strength of oil revenues.
A recent report by the Royal Bank predicted that with manufacturing in decline, Ontario may only experience a 0.8-per-cent growth this year - flirting with recession. Is our predicament more about the booming economies of oil-rich provinces? Or is it about the decline in automotive manufacturing?
Or - as the federal Conservative government and the opposition in Ontario are suggesting - is it about Ontario's refusal to cut spending and taxes to spur economic investment?
Ontario is at a crossroads.
McGuinty vowed in April that the budget will remain balanced - a difficult task in tough times. The premier has refused to cut taxes and services.
In the last provincial budget, unveiled in March, Ontario appears to largely stay the course.
Time will tell whether this approach works.